In May this year, I posted a note on a dynamic commodity long/short strategy which tries to establish a bull/bear signal for a specific component commodity market. Currently the model is signalling a bullish outlook for the precious metals sector, including gold and silver, for the coming month. Indeed, the signal is really strong as the underlying composite factors including fundamental factor, momentum factor, and market sentiment factor all point to the potential upside.
Interestingly, an article on Bloomberg today also confirmed the bullish outlook for gold.
"Gold will rise to more than $1,000 an ounce next month based on moving-average “deja vu” patterns since the start of 2005, according to Barclays Capital.
JPMorgan Chase & Co., Standard Chartered Bank and three other financial companies predicted bullion would top $1,000 in the fourth quarter, the survey by Bloomberg showed."
The party for gold has yet started....
About Me
- Dr. Junhua Lu
- Junhua Lu BSc, MSc (Fin), CFA, MCSE, PhD Quantitative portfolio strategist with expertise in a broad range of financial modelling and quantitative analysis techniques. Familiarity with a broad range of portfolio risk management and strategies, including portfolio optimization with higher moment, stress testing, back testing, and risk budgeting. Demonstrated ability to employ a variety of advanced econometric techniques to identify potential investment opportunities creatively. Extensive experience with such programming packages as MATLAB, C++, and VBA as well as use of such financial databases as Factset, Bloomberg, CRSP, Compustat, Lipper and Morningstar.
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